Global Refinery Runs Fell 6% in Q2 Before Modest Recovery

Crude feed to the world's refineries collapsed this spring. In the second quarter of 2026, global inputs ran 4.8 million barrels per day — about 6 percent — below a normal seasonal trajectory, after late-February conflict in the Middle East redrew crude trade routes. Kpler figures released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration confirm a partial rebound since, though runs still trail last year.

The slide inverted normal seasonality — inputs usually climb through Q2 and Q3 as maintenance ends and gasoline and jet fuel demand peaks; 2025 saw rises of 0.3 million b/d and 2 million b/d in those two quarters. This year the deepest cuts landed where disruption around the Strait of Hormuz bit hardest. China lost 2.1 million b/d of crude inputs in Q2 and another 0.8 million in Q3; India, South Korea and Japan shed more than 1 million b/d combined before regaining 0.8 million. Kuwait and the UAE each dropped 0.7 million b/d, Saudi Arabia 0.3 million, Iran 0.2 million — with the four recovering 0.4 million together in Q3 even as the closure strangled refined-product exports.

Russia compounded the squeeze: attacks on its oil infrastructure cut inputs 0.6 million b/d in Q2 and a further 0.8 million in Q3. Because Russia exports vast diesel volumes, the loss tightened a global market already stretched, driving diesel prices to their highest nominal levels on record in September. The United States ran counter to the trend, adding 0.5 million b/d of crude inputs in each quarter while exporting products worldwide to cover the shortfall. Third-quarter inputs overall rose 1.8 million b/d as Hormuz flows, alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers returned Middle Eastern crude to market — yet runs still averaged about 5 percent under the same period of 2025.

For valve and rotating-equipment suppliers, a throughput chart like this doubles as a demand map. Deferred maintenance does not disappear; it clusters. Refineries that trimmed runs through the disruption will stack turnarounds into tighter windows when margins recover, and every postponed overhaul means the relief valves, isolation gates and control valves specified in January get ordered in bulk later — compressing lead times for API 600 gate valves, API 6D pipeline valves and the high-temperature chrome-moly bodies that hydrocracker and FCC service demand. Meanwhile, the units that kept running harder, notably U.S. refiners chasing record diesel economics, accumulate risk of their own: extended run-lengths push equipment toward the edge of its inspection intervals, so pressure relief devices, emergency shutdown valves and hot-oil-service seal systems face intensified testing and replacement demand. Procurement teams on both sides of this chart should act on the same principle — lock in qualified suppliers early. Buyers facing clustered turnarounds should place valve orders against firm schedules before fabricators' books fill; operators running hard should pre-position critical spares rather than wait for the next inspection cycle to expose the gap. Refinery output is recovering unevenly, and the equipment backlog built during the slump will keep surfacing well into 2027.